COVID-19 Forecast

 In Event News

A new COVID-19 event set has been added under the Social Risks peril of the EigenPrism real-time event catalog.

This event set provides a monthly forecast of estimated prevalent infections per capita – that is, all cases that exist in a region on a given day – which could be a much higher number than those confirmed.  Forecasts are available for July 1st, August 1st and September 1st.

The monthly forecast is sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME model uses infection fatality ratios to estimate the number of prevalent infections based on projected deaths.

The IHME model incorporates planned and actual easing of social distancing, changes in mobility, and variability in testing. It also factors in the observation that the number of deaths in certain US states has been staying at a higher level for a longer period of time than seen in other countries that experienced earlier epidemics.

The forecast event set is updated when the IHME releases new forecasts, which has been approximately twice a month to date.

Quick links for the most recent monthly forecasts are shown below: 

The coronavirus data for all US event sets can be viewed in the SAMPLE US Coronavirus Impact Summary

Assess the impact with EigenPrism:

With EigenPrism users can monitor, plan and respond to extreme events and estimate potential impacts in advance.

EigenAlerts provide automated notifications via email and text message with key metrics to estimate impact:

  • Customized and mobile-enabled.
  • Updated as forecasts and advisories change.

Not a subscriber, but want to see how this works? Contact us for your free trial; and we’ll show you how EigenPrism helps you plan, monitor, and respond to nat cat events.